Forge Intelligence

Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence

Construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world…

Updated

Definition

Construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.

Coverage role

Bridges systems thinking and creation by turning ideas about a system into inspectable boundaries, entities, interfaces, states, dynamics, scenarios, assumptions, and executable or analyzable models.

Scope

Included

  • model purpose and fidelity
  • system boundary and context
  • stakeholders and operating scenarios
  • entities components and roles
  • interfaces flows and constraints
  • states behavior and feedback
  • uncertainty and parameters
  • architecture synthesis
  • simulation design
  • calibration and model validation

Excluded and non-goals

  • treating a model as the real system
  • claiming prediction beyond validated scope
  • hiding value choices in parameters
  • using simulation to bypass required real-world tests
  • selecting one formalism for every problem
  • deploying safety-critical models without qualified review

Boundary rules

  • Route to general.system-modeling-simulation when the requested outcome requires one or more declared capabilities and the output can be represented by its canonical artifacts.
  • Route to an adjacent or specialist intelligence when domain-specific rules, tools, or professional authority dominate the problem.
  • Use general.reasoning to coordinate multi-pack conflicts, hard constraints, uncertainty, and decision status.
  • Return ask, defer, or escalate when required context, source authority, consent, or accountable ownership is missing.

Capability semantics

Capability ID Name Semantic intent
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.define_model_purpose_and_fidelity Define Model Purpose And Fidelity State the decisions or questions the model supports, required resolution, tolerated error, excluded uses, and validation threshold.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.set_system_boundary_and_context Set System Boundary And Context Identify system of interest, environment, stakeholders, external actors, interfaces, resources, and lifecycle boundary.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.model_entities_relations_and_interfaces Model Entities Relations And Interfaces Represent components, agents, roles, dependencies, information, material, energy, value, and control flows.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.model_states_behavior_and_feedback Model States Behavior And Feedback Represent state transitions, events, timing, feedback loops, delays, adaptation, and emergent interactions.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.synthesize_candidate_architectures Synthesize Candidate Architectures Generate alternative system structures that satisfy needs and constraints while preserving traceability to the model purpose.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.represent_parameters_and_uncertainty Represent Parameters And Uncertainty Define units, ranges, distributions, correlations, unknowns, calibration data, and epistemic versus aleatory uncertainty.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.design_and_run_simulations Design And Run Simulations Choose scenarios, initial conditions, interventions, repetitions, seeds, outputs, and reproducibility controls.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.analyze_sensitivity_and_failure Analyze Sensitivity And Failure Identify influential assumptions, thresholds, unstable regions, unreachable states, bottlenecks, and failure propagation.
capability.general.system-modeling-simulation.validate_and_version_model Validate And Version Model Compare model behavior with requirements, reference data, expert judgment, invariants, and intended use; record limitations and versions.

Canonical artifact concepts

Artifact type Structural category Semantic purpose
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.modeling_charter model Modeling Charter for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.system_context_and_boundary_model context_profile System Context And Boundary Model for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A bounded context profile that separates observations, preferences, constraints, uncertainty, time scope, and next questions. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.stakeholder_and_scenario_model model Stakeholder And Scenario Model for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.entity_interface_and_flow_graph model Entity Interface And Flow Graph for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.state_and_behavior_model model State And Behavior Model for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.feedback_and_causal_model model Feedback And Causal Model for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.candidate_architecture_set model Candidate Architecture Set for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.parameter_and_uncertainty_ledger ledger Parameter And Uncertainty Ledger for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A controlled collection of uniquely identified entries with ownership, provenance, status, and review state. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.simulation_specification brief Simulation Specification for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A bounded specification of purpose, stakeholders, requirements, constraints, assumptions, and success criteria. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.sensitivity_and_model_validation_report model Sensitivity And Model Validation Report for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A purpose-bounded representation of entities, relationships, assumptions, boundaries, and evidence of adequacy. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.
artifact.general.system-modeling-simulation.model_version_and_validation_record ledger Model Version And Validation Record for Novel-System Modeling and Simulation Intelligence: A controlled collection of uniquely identified entries with ownership, provenance, status, and review state. It supports the pack purpose of construct explicit, purpose-bounded models of existing or not-yet-built systems, represent structure and behavior at an appropriate fidelity, and use simulation or analysis to explore consequences before real-world commitment.

Method families and limits

Method ID Method Use when Avoid when
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.system_context_and_concept_of_operations system context and concept of operations Use when system behavior depends on components, states, interfaces, flows, timing, feedback, resources, or scenario conditions. Avoid treating the model as reality, choosing fidelity without a decision purpose, or validating only against the same assumptions used to build it.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.functional_and_logical_architecture functional and logical architecture Use when system behavior depends on components, states, interfaces, flows, timing, feedback, resources, or scenario conditions. Avoid treating the model as reality, choosing fidelity without a decision purpose, or validating only against the same assumptions used to build it.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.state_machines state machines Use when system behavior depends on components, states, interfaces, flows, timing, feedback, resources, or scenario conditions. Avoid treating the model as reality, choosing fidelity without a decision purpose, or validating only against the same assumptions used to build it.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.causal_loop_and_stock_flow_models causal-loop and stock-flow models Use when a decision concerns intervention, mechanism, feedback, delay, confounding, or counterfactual change rather than description alone. Do not treat association, temporal sequence, stakeholder belief, or repeated why-questions as proof of causation; use them to propose testable structures.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.discrete_event_simulation discrete-event simulation Use when system behavior depends on components, states, interfaces, flows, timing, feedback, resources, or scenario conditions. Avoid treating the model as reality, choosing fidelity without a decision purpose, or validating only against the same assumptions used to build it.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.agent_based_simulation agent-based simulation Use when system behavior depends on components, states, interfaces, flows, timing, feedback, resources, or scenario conditions. Avoid treating the model as reality, choosing fidelity without a decision purpose, or validating only against the same assumptions used to build it.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.network_and_dependency_models network and dependency models Use when system behavior depends on components, states, interfaces, flows, timing, feedback, resources, or scenario conditions. Avoid treating the model as reality, choosing fidelity without a decision purpose, or validating only against the same assumptions used to build it.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.scenario_and_design_reference_missions scenario and design-reference missions Use when material uncertainty cannot be represented credibly by one forecast and a decision must remain acceptable across plausible futures. Avoid presenting scenarios as predictions, omitting adverse but plausible futures, or choosing a preferred scenario after seeing the result.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.dimensional_analysis dimensional analysis Use when formulas, models, conversions, rates, or simulation parameters must preserve physical or semantic units. Avoid implicit unit conversion, mixing nominal and real values, treating dimensionless scales as interchangeable, or accepting numerically plausible but dimensionally invalid equations.
method.general.system-modeling-simulation.calibration_verification_validation_and_uncertainty_quantification calibration verification validation and uncertainty quantification Use when confidence depends on repeating a result, independently reimplementing it, comparing it with reference data, or estimating systematic measurement error. Avoid calling a same-code rerun an independent replication, hiding deviations from the original conditions, or treating agreement within one dataset as general validity.

Pack-specific invariants

The pack also inherits the core invariants in core/core_invariants.yaml.

Invariant ID Statement Failure action
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.01_every_model_states_its_purpose_intended_decisions_fidelity Every model states its purpose, intended decisions, fidelity, excluded uses, and validation status. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.02_system_boundary_environment_interfaces_units_time_scale_an System boundary, environment, interfaces, units, time scale, and version are explicit. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.03_assumptions_parameters_data_transformations_and_value_choi Assumptions parameters data transformations and value choices are traceable. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.04_the_model_is_never_presented_as_the_real_system_or_as_vali The model is never presented as the real system or as valid outside its tested domain. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.05_conservation_laws_hard_constraints_and_impossible_states_a Conservation laws hard constraints and impossible states are encoded or explicitly waived. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.06_simulation_runs_are_reproducible_when_deterministic_and_st Simulation runs are reproducible when deterministic and statistically characterized when stochastic. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.07_architecture_selection_remains_separate_from_model_validat Architecture selection remains separate from model validation and stakeholder acceptance. repair_or_conditional_pass
invariant.general.system-modeling-simulation.08_high_consequence_use_requires_independent_review_proportio High-consequence use requires independent review proportional to model risk. repair_or_conditional_pass

Dependencies and relations

Operational general intelligences: general.validation-verification
Foundation concepts: general.systems, general.causal-counterfactual, general.logical-constraint, general.probabilistic-statistical, general.temporal, general.spatial-structural, general.tool-computational
Life intelligences: None

Source roles

Source ID Claim roles Runtime resolution required
nasa.systems_modeling concept_definition, engineering_method, verification_and_validation False
nasa.systems_engineering concept_definition, engineering_method, verification_and_validation False
nasa.models_simulations concept_definition, engineering_method, verification_and_validation False
nap.science_engineering_practices concept_definition, research_and_evidence_practice False

Risk and authority boundary

Risk class: moderate

  • The model influences safety-critical, medical, legal, financial, infrastructure, environmental, or public-policy decisions.
  • Validation data are absent yet the model would be used for irreversible commitment or automated control.
  • The system contains classified, security-sensitive, regulated, or ethically contested mechanisms.

Accountable people retain consent, value, regulated, irreversible, and residual-risk decisions. This semantic page does not claim a deployed implementation.

Maturity

semantic: S3_reviewable_definition
contract: C3_testable_contract
implementation: I0_not_included
evidence: E2_source_roles_mapped
governance: G2_controls_and_review_defined
overlay: O2_paired_seed_complete

Paired overlay

Runtime maturity

  • Capabilities: 9
  • Technical floor→ceiling: I1_runtimeI1_runtime
  • Autonomy floor→ceiling: A0_assistedA0_assisted
  • I1_runtime count: 9
  • Evidence class: contract: 9
  • Full hierarchy: MATURITY-HIERARCHY.md

Evaluation suite status

  • CI status: pass
  • Suite: evaluation_suites/system-modeling-simulation.yaml
  • Cases defined: 7
  • Capabilities under test: 9